| 作者 |
 [原创] 中国股市疯牛病：从 AMAZON 股票大涨看华尔街的愚蠢 |
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It is a simple mad game called "Short Squeeze" -- sapientaf - (330 Byte) 2007-4-28 周六, 13:11 (855 reads) |
残荷
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作者：残荷 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
你原帖里的观点有道理，这样一解释就更明白了，AMZN有足够交易量，我也基本能够用期权的组合来表达你的观点。当然，具体策略、月份、价位、比例的选择达不到最优；听你的劝告，不实施AMZN的期权策略。
顺便请教一下上次MOT的问题。在2007年1月中，MOT突然从$20下落到$18，
You put on a bull spread:
Long 1 x 15 Call at 5.40 = $540
Short 1 x 20 Call st 2.85 = $285
Cost = 255
If MOT closes at 20 in Jan 2009
Long 1 x 15 Call at 20-15->5x100 = $500
Short 1 x 20 call at 0 = $0
If MOT climbed back to $20 in less than a month, your bull spread wasn't likely to show a profit (Note 1) due to higher premium assigned to the at-the-money $20 call (the short-leg of the spread). However, from another perspective, I would consider you're quite ahead in the game, and be anxious to take advantage of this swift (could be short-lived) recovery of MOT price back to $20 and implement a bear strategy (given your existing bull position); I understand, my extra strategy will reduce the potential of $500 worth of profit 23 months later (Note 2); but locking in a chunk of that $500 in merely 1 month (or at least reducing the $255 downside risk) doesn't sound like a bad idea to me.
If I didn't do anything, MOT is today (April 27, 2007) at around $17.55 (bid/ask spread for calls not factored in):
Long 1 x 15 Call at 4.55 = $455
Short 1 x 20 Call st 2.00 = $200
Cost = 255, which remains the same; so do your upside and downside potentials.
My question is: Am I on the right track in adjusting the MOT call spread exposure in early Feb 2007, or it's simply not as feasible or advisable as I thought to make any adjustments (assume I don't have AAPL or other securities in my portfolio -- this bull spread is the only position I have)?
Appreciate your insights.
Note 1: it was wrong to claim the position was not showing profit. The 15-call has intrinsic value which appreciated $2 in merely 1 month. The bull spread could be showing a significant return in less than a month.
Note 2:the $500 is the maximum potential value of the bull spread, while the profit is $500 - $255 = $245, or close to 100% return in 2 years if MOT trades above $20 in Jan 2009.
作者：残荷 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由残荷于2007-4-29 周日, 01:46修改，总共修改了1次
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